FAQ: Eurovision Song Contest 2024. The option is available on Unibet and (from abroad) on Bet365.
Reasoning: Slovenia is represented this year by Raiven, who can deliver the emotional climax of the song in a soprano opera voice, which would secure her passage to the next round with the professional juries. Unfortunately, since last year, in this stage of the competition, the fate is decided solely by the audience, but there is still plenty to look for there. Let me explain why.
Firstly, Slovenia’s allocated performance slot is quite favorable, as they will perform 9th in the 1st semifinal, which traditionally is close to one of the best positions. Additionally, they will follow (a weak…) Iceland, whose performance will undoubtedly highlight Raiven’s performance. Furthermore, the song is gaining momentum on social media, indicating that it is well-received by many; it is being shared far more than the compositions considered direct competitors (Serbia, Australia, Portugal). If we were to judge the song’s expected reception based on this alone, the movement in the odds would be completely incomprehensible. Slovenia’s qualification was initially opened at odds of ~1.50 two weeks ago, indicating that bookmakers considered them a sure qualifier. I fully agreed with them at that time, so I now consider betting on their current odds to be a complete value bet. This is my third main argument. Most likely, the odds only shifted because Australia and Ireland’s songs have been showing weeks of slow but steady “strengthening.” Obviously, not everyone can progress, so if the odds of two countries have started to drop, it is only logical to raise someone else’s… But I’m not deterred by this! In my view, Raiven is a certain qualifier!
Outcome: Raiven progressed => the tip won!