FAQ: US Presidential Election, Original publishing date of tip: 2024.04.26.
Justification: A completely new scenario may unfold in the November US presidential election, as Donald Trump has not yet been in opposition and he is currently running for the presidency from there. In 2016, he won as a brand-new candidate running against Hillary Clinton as a massive underdog – and in 2020, 3.5 years of positive economic and geopolitical achievements (almost war-free 4 years, easing relations between Middle Eastern states, peacemaking) were not enough to get him reelected. It’s true, he mostly fell into the COVID crisis and the voting loopholes it created (everyone can think what they want about this, but many scandals about fraud erupted at that time…). I’d like to write this analysis detached from political sides – but I’m not sure I will be completely successful, I ask for everyone’s indulgence in advance. Of course, I also prioritize value-betting and not heart-betting. In 2024, Trump is still extremely popular among Republicans, and this wasn’t prevented by the almost total shutdown of his social media accounts prior to Joe Biden‘s inauguration in January 2021 (which was later lifted). He is widely supported by Republicans who stand by the party’s traditional values and by those interested in the political movement he leads. Trump skillfully uses media and social media to spread his political messages. This allows him to maintain a direct connection with his supporters and effectively communicate his selected messages. Moreover, the economic achievements during his previous presidency, such as the decrease in unemployment and the increase in stock market performance, may convince some voters to re-elect Trump. Let’s not forget that during Biden’s governance marked record inflation in US history, causing massive stock market crashes + and this is also due to the FED’s policy of raising interest rates and limiting asset purchases…! Not to mention that under Trump the monetary press was running hot because of COVID, which might have caused these fundamental changes, so the FED as an “independent” body made the same mistakes under both leaders. Furthermore, it’s interesting that Democrats generally incite wars to drive up GDP and demonstrate power (Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, Ukraine (?), Israel (?), etc…), which strongly divides their own voter base! And I don