FAQ: American football, NFL.
Reasoning: Last week we already successfully bet on Derrick Henry’s (No. 1 Ravens running back) individual performance, but today could be a especially big day for him. Firstly because it is his birthday, so he will certainly make this memorable for his team. Secondly he is just one touchdown away from breaking the franchise record. Thirdly, since this match is essentially meaningless for both sides, and both teams are stronger in running than in passing, the offenses are likely to travel mostly on the ground. Henry was skilful against Cleveland in the fall (73 yards, 1 touchdown), and as a Tennessee player in previous years, he scored a touchdown against the Browns. All this makes it highly likely that Henry is due for a big day. Unfortunately, the expected number of yards he will run is set too high to bet on, and the odds for scoring 1 TD is too low to worth it, so I am forced to take a risk for him scoring 2 touchdowns.
Result: Henry scored 2 touchdowns => the tip WON! 🙂